RIKWEN R. Jonathan.

Atiku Abubakar has shaken the table on fuel subsidy.

After campaigning in 2022 and 2023 on a promise to remove subsidy, his renewed argument for restoring a form of subsidy under a future administration has reopened one of Nigeria’s most contentious economic debates.

Politically, it gives the Tinubu administration an obvious response: how can someone who once promised to remove subsidy now campaign on bringing it back? But Nigerians should demand more than accusations of inconsistency. The real question is whether Nigeria’s energy policy is producing the economic outcomes the country needs.

Subsidy removal addressed a genuine structural problem. Nigeria was spending heavily to keep petrol cheap while remaining dependent on imported refined products. But its removal also imposed enormous costs on households and businesses. Higher fuel prices quickly became higher transport fares, food prices and production costs.

That is why the debate should move beyond simply asking whether subsidy should return.

The more important question is: should Nigeria subsidise consumption or subsidise production?

Rather than a blanket petrol subsidy, government could consider targeted support for public transportation, agriculture, manufacturing and logistics—sectors where energy costs directly affect productivity and the cost of living.

The emergence of large-scale domestic refining makes this debate even more important. Nigeria now has an opportunity to move beyond the old cycle of exporting crude, importing refined products and subsidising consumption. Domestic refining can retain more value within the economy and provide the foundation for petrochemicals, fertiliser, manufacturing and energy-intensive industries.

But refining should only be the beginning.

Nigeria is West Africa’s economic giant, with a huge consumer market, abundant resources, financial institutions, entrepreneurial capacity and significant industrial potential. The question is whether it can transform those advantages into productive power.

Nigeria should not have to choose between oil and manufacturing. It should use oil and gas to support manufacturing, while processing more of its agricultural and mineral resources and exporting higher-value products across Africa.

That requires reliable electricity, efficient transport, functional ports, better railways, affordable financing and consistent economic policies.

This is where the 2027 presidential campaign should move beyond personal attacks.

Candidates should be asked: If you will not restore blanket fuel subsidy, how will you make transportation affordable? How will you make energy competitive for manufacturers? How will domestic refining drive industrialisation? How will Nigeria use its enormous market to become West Africa’s manufacturing and trading hub?

The debate should not simply be about making petrol cheaper.

It should be about making Nigeria cheaper and easier to produce in.

That is the economic question worthy of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.